September 30, 2022

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Will war break out tomorrow? Here’s all you need to know about a possible Russian attack

The United States says Russia may launch an attack tomorrow

Last Friday, the German newspaper Der Spiegel published an article

It was written that Russian forces could launch an attack on Ukraine on February 16, citing US intelligence sources.

And then The Politics Note: President Joe Biden has warned US allies in private talks that a Russian offensive in Ukraine could begin on February 16. And Jake Sullivan, the president’s national security adviser, said President Putin could issue an order “before the end of the February 20 Winter Olympics.”

Jake Sullivan, the White House’s national security adviser, believes Russia could attack Ukraine before February 20. Photo by Shawn Div / EPA / Bloomberg via Getty Images

The US government is taking the possibility of a Russian attack very seriously In recent weeks, they have disbanded their embassy in the Ukrainian capital, Kiev, and called on US citizens in the country to leave immediately.

Many allies have done this, including Britain, Australia, New Zealand, Latvia, Estonia, Denmark, the Netherlands, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Ukraine calms the mood

Since the news of Russian troops began leaking last autumn,

Since then, Ukraine has been trying to calm the mood and calm the panic.

When US political leadership first leaked that Russia was preparing for troop unions, Ukraine initially said the news was false.

In late January, US President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Gelensky disagreed on the seriousness of the Russian threat, and after threatening talks, the White House stopped using the word “immediate” when warning of a Russian invasion.

About the alleged invasion planned for tomorrow Secretary of the National Security and Security Council (RNPO) Alexei Danilov said yesterday that they had no information that such an attack was planned in Ukraine.

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In recent weeks, a significant number of Ukrainian civilians have been engaged in military training in preparation for a possible Russian invasion. Photo: Sergei Suzakov / Sofa Pictures / Light Rocket via Getty Images

President Volodymyr Zelensky yesterday posted a post on Facebook about the possibility of a Russian invasion, with some Hungarian news websites describing it as a “war talk” in which the Ukrainian president orders a “holiday.”

In our interpretation, Zhelensky (from an American source) speaks highly of the fact that February 16 is the only possible day of the invasion and calls on the Ukrainian people to unite. In his speech, however, he stressed that diplomatic solutions would be sought, thereby restoring Crimea and the Donpost.

Zhelensky, in our interpretation, certainly did not say that there would be a Russian attack tomorrow, nor did he order a day off.

Overall, the Ukrainian leadership does not agree 100% with the rumors of a US invasion tomorrow, the day after tomorrow, but the Ukrainian political leadership is still trying to defuse tensions.

Russia denies it

Russia has consistently denied preparing for the invasion since troops began in November and sees the tension as a frenzy for the United States.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said yesterday that Russia was ready to hold talks with the United States, Ukraine and other countries, but “these cannot last indefinitely.”

There have been several Russian-American, Russian-German-French talks in recent weeks, but these have not yielded definitive results in addition to the commitment to the diplomatic path.

Western analysts say Russia is not really seeking a peaceful solution, with unconditional terms for negotiations. Russia supports this view by asking NATO to guarantee that it will never capture Ukraine or any other former Soviet state and that it will withdraw US troops from Bulgaria and Hungary.

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Although Russia has been ready for months to implement its intentions against violating the red lines set by President Vladimir Putin, it is not yet clear from the Kremlin’s rhetoric that this will happen tomorrow.

Of course, the annexation of Crimea proves that if Russia wants to attack a country, it does not have to hit a big drum.

The Russian military is currently conducting large-scale, extensive military exercises around Ukraine, with some analysts and politicians explaining that they are preparing for a specific invasion. Photo: Russian Defense Ministry / Guide / Anatolian Agency via Getty Images

Incidentally, Russian forces have completely encircled Ukraine and are training on the border with equipment that will be especially useful during the invasion:

What will be the consequences of war?

We have previously written several analyzes of the possible consequences of the open Russian-Ukrainian war, and the key findings are as follows:

  • The conflict will certainly be confined to Ukraine (If It takes place). Strong NATO members have stated (Britain YesterdayThe United States (in the past) will not send troops to Ukraine even if there is a Russian attack, so there will be no armed conflict between Russian forces and NATO countries, and there is no need to fear that world war will escalate.
  • Western nations have imposed severe sanctions on Russia, which will certainly have a global impact. Energy prices are expected to fall, the Russian stock market, the ruble and other regional assets to fall. In the most severe case, they could disconnect Russia from the SWIFT international news organization, which would lead to a complete collapse of Russian foreign trade and a definite impact on the stability of European trade.
  • Hungary will certainly not engage in open warfare. The Hungarian government maintains a relatively cool relationship with Ukraine, making it clear that NATO strong powers will not intervene. Nevertheless, there will be some kind of solidarity assistance, such as caring for Ukrainian soldiers in Hungarian hospitals and the possibility of assisting people fleeing the conflict, especially Hungarians in Transcarpathia. The economic consequences of the embargo war are unlikely to be felt by us, but unlike other European countries, thanks to the Russia-Hungary gas deal. Since you do not know what is in the contract, this is only an assumption.
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It is worth reading our detailed analysis of the topic:

Cover image: Eric Romanenko toss via Getty Images