June 3, 2023

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Vladimir Putin surprised the world again – What are you preparing for now in Ukraine?

That was in the speech

Analysts and officials came up with a lot of speculation before May 9 about what Putin would announce at the Victory Day military parade. There was only one consensus on one point: Some big announcements are expected from the Russian president. Compared to that, talk There were already known publics in it: a II. It outlines the similarities between World War II and the current war in Ukraine, outlining Russia’s threat to the West and the ‘Nazis’.

Putin began his speech with the military action in the Donetsk Basin Potential theft was prevented Their “historical territory” including Crimea. He accused Ukraine of developing nuclear weapons and arming them with the help of NATO, and said the United States was supporting the Nazis in Ukraine. He said military action against Ukraine was a “timely and correct” decision.

According to Putin Russia fights with international mercenariesThose who are trying to break Russia. He stressed that the attacks to break up Russia had failed and that the ethnic groups that make up the country were fighting shoulder to shoulder.

Russian soldiers are now fighting for their grandfathers, and they also fought for the defense of their homeland

Putin called the Soviet soldiers heroes in the great patriotic war that would set a precedent for future generations in the struggle against Nazism.

The Russian president said the death of all Russian soldiers was a tragedy and that the Russian government had promised to help the families of fallen Russian soldiers. He said the order on the care of orphans and widows had been fulfilled. He thanked the soldiers and health workers for their work and welcomed the soldiers from the Donbass area who attended the parade.

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So basically one Defensive fighting When Nazi Germany invaded the Soviet Union, he outlined his image of Putin in parallel with World War II.

These are not said

There were basically three announcements about what Putin might announce on May 9:

  1. Official war news against Ukraine,
  2. Ordering war and full mobilization in Russia,
  3. Announces victory against Ukraine.

As we wrote, of the three options, the most likely to declare victory against Ukraine is:

  • The loss rate is unbearable
  • Increasing economic damage,
  • Already passed big goals,
  • There are military area victories that justify the victory,
  • Announcing another victory against Putin’s “Nazism” would be appropriate for Victory Day.

We considered the obvious message of the war and the full mobilization to be much less likely. News of war as a form of international law was regulated by the Hague Treaty of 1907, and many official news of war took place during the First and Second World Wars. The UN, established after 1945, declared wars to be illegal, after which the occupying powers generally sought to deny that they waged real wars. The open war era was also sacrificed. Today, in Russian bureaucracy, the occupation of Ukraine is called a war, but “Special military action”. UN And the UN. Even as a member of the Security Council, Russia was small and still has no chance of openly declaring war on Ukraine.

But Putin would have had a different path.

In the event of a direct attack on Russia, or an immediate threat of an attack, Putin could have declared a state of war and ordered a partial or full mobilization.

Based on this, all men of military age may have been assigned to the battlefield in Ukraine. Since Russia’s territory is already under heavy attack from the Ukrainian side, Putin can safely order a state of war and mobilization, thus filling his weak army with soldiers and reserves. However, there are several issues with this:

  • The recruitment of working-age Russians would be another major injury already plaguing the Russian economy, which is struggling with serious problems and Western sanctions.
  • A significant proportion of men in military training do not receive adequate and regular retraining, so the combat forces of reserve soldiers are actually very limited.
  • Although the war in Ukraine was popular among the Russian people because of the state propaganda, it would create a different situation if Russian family leaders had to sacrifice their lives on the Ukrainian front as well.
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Because of all this, a partial or complete mobilization would do more harm than good by sending basically inexperienced civilians to war.

Putin will face further weakening of the Russian economy and the rapid unpopularity of the war in Ukraine, which will certainly affect his personal reputation. Therefore, war and mobilization in Russia is not yet possible.

What is the meaning of Putin’s speech on May 9?

As before the May 9 speech, one can only guess what Putin will announce, so after the speech, we can only guess why he did not announce anything useful.

As far as the continuation of the war in Ukraine, it can be said that everything so far has been on the wheel.

Because there is nothing contrary to this in speech. The reason he did not declare victory was that the occupation of the whole of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions had not yet succeeded, and that Russia’s minimalist victory plan was aimed at “completely liberating” both. Districts. Even the last defenders of the main city of Donetsk, like Mariupol, have found themselves in the steel works of Azov.

It is true that Putin gave a less militant speech than expected It could also mean preparing for the gradual dismantling of the war. You are not yet able to declare success for the reasons mentioned above, but the conditions listed as potential reasons for success are still applicable. Russian forces have suffered significant losses, but full mobilization does not appear to be a viable option.

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The full acquisition of Donbass and the consolidation of control in areas currently under Russian control seem to be the most rational and yet achievable goal.

This is how the occupied territories of the Kerson region north of Crimea are gradually being integrated with Russia: preparations for the declaration of the Kersan People’s Republic have been going on for some time, and the Russian ruble will be introduced in a matter of weeks. A leading official of Putin’s United Russia also announced on Friday that Herzone would not return to the past, saying “Russia will always be here.”

All of this is, of course, still speculation. It is now as true as ever that only Putin knows what is going on in Putin’s mind.

Cover: Russian President Vladimir Putin arrives at a military parade on May 9, 2022, with Defense Minister Sergei Choi on his right. Contributor / Getty Images