The Russo-Ukrainian war may be the most widely documented military conflict in world history, meaning the most intense information and propaganda war surrounding the conflict. There is misunderstood, accidental or deliberately distorted, perhaps completely misleading information about the conflict. Both sides even try to interpret the video footage according to their own narratives.
Unfortunately, that is clear Both parties are “at war” over their own and hostile casualties and civilian casualties.
On the other hand, it is clear that there are many victims of this conflict, but it is very difficult to see exactly how much of this is due to the information war.
The Ukrainian side reports exactly how many Russian soldiers were killed each morning and how many Russian military vehicles were destroyed since the beginning of the conflict. Initially, these figures were confirmed as facts, and since then, Defense Minister Alexei Resnikov He acknowledged that they were not completely accurate and that they were only referred to as “estimated” hostile losses.
Announcement released this morning:
- 9000 soldiers
- 217 tanks,
- 900 “Armored Vehicles”
- 90 Artillery equipment,
- 42 Missile artillery equipment,
- 11 Air defense equipment,
- 30 flights,
- 31 helicopters.
In contrast, the Russian side admitted for the first time yesterday that they had suffered no casualties during the “special operations” launched in Ukraine. The Kremlin said 498 fell and 1,597 soldiers were injured. Their casualties in the war vehicles were not reported.
See how much variation there is: Ukraine reports 18 times more Russian losses than the Russian side.
Based on these, it can be assumed that no party is reliably represented: The Russians underestimate and the Ukrainians overestimate the Russian losses.
The Pentagon last announced an estimated Russian loss on Monday: then 2,000 were laid off. At the time, it seemed like a very realistic estimate based on the leaked videos, reports and news.
Ukraine announced 5,300 Russian losses on Monday, so if this loss starts from a dynamic, Russian losses could now be realistically 3000-3500, but it is necessary to emphasize: this may be a very misleading estimate, and you can not know. Specific numbers due to war turmoil.
In the field of war vehicles, the most realistic loss documents Orix Conducted by project members, Confirming the number of lost war vehicles by pictures and geolocation, moving from vehicle to vehicle. The Oryx project is 1-2 days late and their information is incomplete, but they are still there On the Russian side, 515 lost (destroyed + abandoned + occupied) military vehicles were counted.
Based on the summary of Oryx, here are some:
- Of the 217 tanks reported by the Ukrainians, 28% were 60 Russian tank casualties (18 of them were shot, 1 was seriously wounded, 22 were abandoned and 19 were occupied).
- The number of Russian helicopter casualties is 7, which is 22.5% of the 31 helicopters reported by the Ukrainians.
- The attackers lost 4 planes, 13% of the 30 reported by the Ukrainians.
Although Orix may not be able to realistically track every war vehicle, it can be seen that Ukrainian communications are actually overestimated. The losses of Russian technical equipment are very serious.
It may be even more difficult to summarize the losses in Ukraine. The Ukrainian side did not continue to report its own casualties, most recently losing 40 soldiers on the first day of the invasion.. The Russians said yesterday that it was almost a week
- 2,870 Ukrainian soldiers were killed.
- 3,700 Ukrainian soldiers were wounded.
- A further 572 prisoners of war were released.
- And 1,600 “military supplies”, presumably vehicles, fixed defenses and buildings destroyed.
The Pentagon on Monday estimated the actual loss of 2,000 Russians and 1,500 Ukrainian casualties.
It is now almost impossible to claim that Ukrainian casualties are taking place, as neither the Pentagon nor the Ukrainians nor the Russian military have released regular estimates of Ukrainian casualties. The Pentagon’s estimate for the Russia-Ukraine ratio will be 2,000 to 2,500 by Thursday, but that is certainly not the exact figure.
Fortunately, Oryx also makes a collection of Ukrainian war vehicle losses, the above denials are valid in terms of accuracy.
Based on current work Loss of Ukrainians 163 military vehicles, 67 of which were destroyed, 4 suffered irreparable damage, 43 were abandoned by operators and 49 fell into the hands of the enemy.
Since the Russians did not report any casualties on Ukrainian war vehicles, it is interesting to compare them to the losses of Russian war vehicles published by ORIX. To mention a few:
- The Ukrainians lost 24 tanks, the Russians 60 – so the Russians lost 40% of the Russians,
- Ukrainians lost 21 infantry vehicles, Russians lost 67 – Ukrainian loss rate 31% compared to Russia,
- The Ukrainians lost 14 and the Russians 27 armored vehicles – about 51%.
- Since there is no record of a significant proportion of Ukrainian aircraft being destroyed on land, it makes little sense to compare air losses (in terms of numbers only in Paris).
Thus, from statistics it can be seen that in Ukraine there may be losses of about 30-40% in terms of vehicles and 70-75% in terms of employees in Russia.
Unfortunately, as the attack progressed and the fighting intensified, more civilian casualties occurred. Even if one or the other does not intentionally discriminate because of the fight, Even then, it is not possible to calculate the exact number of victims in the population. It is common for everyone to try to cover up the number of atrocities committed against their own citizens, but so far the leaks confirm that Russian and Ukrainian forces and gunmen in deliberate organizations committed deliberate atrocities against the population.
Ukraine says 2,000 civilians have been killed in a Russian offensive that began on February 24. – It refers to both injury and death.
On the contrary, the UN According to its latest report The clashes between February 24 and March 1 killed 227 civilians and injured 525 others – Added: The number of actual victims may be significantly higher than this, but may be significantly lower than the 2,000 registered by the Ukrainians.
Unfortunately, the death toll from the remaining conflict is expected to rise exponentially.
There are two main reasons for this:
- Fights are intensifying around the big cities And Kiev, with a population of 2.4 million, were still hit mostly by precision and light weapons.
- At the beginning of the invasion, Russian forces tried to save civilians in a spectacular way, but now They also attack military and administrative targets located in densely populated areas. There is no comprehensive fire order for the public yet, but due to increasing resistance and loss of friends, the lives of the public are becoming less and less important.
This is well illustrated by the attack on Kharkov:
It is very unfortunate that those who foretold a war with historically severe casualties in the face of the apparent Russian invasion of Ukraine would be right.
If a solution is not reached within a short period of time.
- After World War II, the Russian side seems to have suffered unprecedented losses in manpower.. In the first 8 months of the first Chechen war, 5,700 soldiers were lost, and in the first 9 months of the Soviet-Afghan war, 15,000 soldiers were lost. This means an average of 71 deaths per week in the first case and an average of 34 deaths per week in the second case. In comparison, the 498 deaths reported by the Russians in one week were even more severe and did not even begin in terms of the siege merit of the big cities. Since Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union until 1991, we can not make such a comparison on the part of Ukraine.
- War vehicle losses are also surprisingly severe. Of course, they did not even approach the figure of more than 100,000 casualties in World War II, but it certainly surpassed the entire Russian-Georgian war in terms of land losses in proportion to the wars in Chechnya and Afghanistan. For example, in the Soviet-Afghan war, the Soviet Union lost a total of 147 tanks and 1,314 armored vehicles in 9 years, now numbering between 60 and 178 in seven days, according to actual ORIX data.
- The number of civilian casualties over time is also high: A total of about 400 civilians died during the Russo-Georgia war, an average of 312 per week during the first Chechen war.
- In the first few days of wars, it is generally true that the casualties are severe and the conflicts are intense, but we are still in the ‘early stages’.It is important to emphasize again: Odessa was rarely attacked, and Kiev and Kharkov were not even attacked by the Russians, and no heavy weapons were found in practice in cities other than artillery.
Of course, there have been wars with even greater casualties (e.g. Iran-Iraq, Second Congo conflict, Yemen civil war, May be Yugoslav war on civilians), but Russia did not explicitly intervene, and our findings above apply to Russia / the Soviet Union.
It is true for almost all modern wars that the most intense fighting and the most severe casualties occur around cities on both sides of the military and civilian, so we expect even more severe casualties and rapidly increasing civilian casualties in the coming weeks. .
We hope that both Russia and Ukraine are aware of this and that a just peace agreement is reached soon to avoid further escalation.
Cover image: Chris McGrath / Getty Images