“Almost everyone who is not vaccinated will get the disease” -This depressing prediction about the corona virus came not from a politician, but from the rector of Semmelweis University A few days ago. There is also some good news in Bela Merkeli’s report: The fourth wave of corona virus infection in Hungary will be protracted and flat, which will put less stress on the health system than ever before.
Although we have already learned that a new variant about Govit-19, a focal point or even human behavior can drastically change the outcome of an epidemic, it is safe to conduct the prognosis with caution. However, it is still possible to extract some data from domestic and international statistics that will help put us on the European epidemic map. In this article, we are now looking for the answer
- How does the fourth wave of the epidemic begin in Hungary compared to the same period last year?
- Based on experience so far, can we expect more stringent restrictions?
- How important is a country’s vaccine against an epidemic?
- And how numbers are formed in other parts of Europe.
Silence before the storm?
Although the weekend data has only been collected for some time, the government will release it on Monday morning, Friday However, 774 new corona virus infections have been reported in the last 24 hours and the death toll is 16. The actual number of victims may be significantly higher than this, as Hungary also tests very little compared to a regional one, so without an official test, even with mild symptoms, many are more likely to escape the disease at home. In Hungary, we last saw similar infection numbers in early May, when the third wave subsided. Now as a precaution, there were more than 10,000 new infections a day at that time, two months before the respiratory period.
The vaccination program and the start of sunshine brought positive changes in May, the summer was quiet and there were weeks when the country felt exactly like it had returned to its previous, well-used life. As soon as school started, the numbers began to crawl upwards in Hungary, but we could not talk about the explosion. At the same time, it is rhetorical
Of the 194 victims registered on September 1, it quadrupled in more than a month to 774.
This is somewhat encouraging than the data a year earlier: on September 1, 2020, there were 118 new infections, but by October 8, the number had nearly doubled to 932.
However, on the fourth wave, as experts warn, we no longer have to look at the number of victims because it does not say much about the actual development of the epidemic. Because we first test small doses and get vaccinated, there are more people with the disease with or without mild symptoms, and the number of serious cases and deaths is very critical. If we examine these, it becomes clear that the delta variant is indeed dangerous, despite the flat epidemic curve.
While the number of hospital admissions is growing more slowly than last year, more and more of them are now getting ventilated. As of October 8, 2020, 804 people were hospitalized and 56 were on the ventilator, up 6.9 percent. A year later, the same thing doubled: out of 650 hospital patients, 100 had to be ventilated by machine, viz.
Currently, 15 percent of hospital admissions require ventilation in the intensive care unit.
The data supply in Hungary includes only those with ventilation and those not treated in the intensive care units, the latter may be higher, which also indicates a higher rate of acute cases.
Where does this lead?
It is a mystery for now that the outbreak of the disease is slower in most parts of Hungary than in neighboring countries, because we do not protect anything other than the vaccine. Aside from health care facilities, there is no need to wear a mask, schools are open, theaters and theaters are open, and people who are tired of the epidemic cannot be said to be more concerned about maintaining their distance. In contrast, in many European countries popular with tourists such as Italy or Greece, people are required to wear a mask under their nose, not only in museums, restaurants, long-haul flights, and even parks in some places. EU vaccination certificate.
There are experts who suspect a low number of tests behind the positive infection numbers. According to statistics, the poles only test less in the region according to population, which would not be a surprising development. They are Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (ECDC) Covid on the map By the way, they are in the green zone, while the capital and two areas in Hungary are marked in red, while the rest are marked in orange, indicating bad infection data. Predictions can also be found on the ECDC website, based on which the rate of new infections will continue to rise over the next seven days, but we will not be in the top segment across the country.
Relatively favorable figures have brought the government to a standstill: Victor Orban can safely argue that new closures for such figures are not necessary, so he is not forced to take unpopular measures before the election. Prime Minister In his radio interview on Friday It also mentions the fact that “masks and masks” do not protect us, and for those who are not vaccinated, it has been said many times before that no further restrictions are needed. The latter are still surprisingly many: although over the age of 12 people have already been vaccinated, only 57.6 percent of the total population have received both doses of the vaccine.
Closures also seem impossible because, based on last year’s experience, the Urban government, which is already reluctant to epidemic, should head for something like this. Strict restrictions – including a curfew order – were introduced on November 11 last year, but by then 4,000 people a day had already been injured, 6,352 in hospital and 473 in need of ventilation. In addition, the decision was announced two days ago, which means the government waited until the last minute.
If we tell the truth about Bela Merkel, if we are to expect a long, flat epidemic curve, we do not have to be afraid of strict controls for now, but the important thing from the nature of the corona virus is that as many people as possible.
The wave of those who have not been vaccinated
In addition to possible mutations, the vaccination program is undoubtedly the most important factor in the development of the infection. Warned Recently Frank Jacob, virologist and professor at Box University. Initially, Hungary had a huge advantage over Russian and Chinese vaccines, but now most European countries have avoided us. Nevertheless, the current flat contagion curve is often caused by the beneficial effects of vaccines. Exact data on the percentage of hospital admissions were not provided, but were interviewed by Genos Slavik, chief physician of the infectious disease department at Southern Insect Central Hospital. Word: There are hundreds of thousands of unvaccinated elderly people in Hungary, most of whom have been hospitalized in the fourth wave.
Since there is no data on this in Hungary, the example of neighboring countries can explain how important vaccines are. As can be seen from the ECDC maps, the epidemic situation in Central and Eastern Europe and the Baltic region is currently the worst in terms of population. However, these countries have significantly reduced population immunization rates compared to Western countries.
For example, in Portugal, 86 percent of the population is vaccinated, in Spain 79 percent and in Denmark 75 percent. But as we move further east, the rates will be lower: in the Central European region, the numbers will be 45 to 60 percent. In Austria, only 60 percent of the population, 55 in the Czech Republic, 50 percent in Slovenia, and 45 percent in Slovakia received both doses of the corona vaccine. In comparison, Hungary, with 59% of the total vaccine, is one of the best countries in the region, but this is not enough to stop the fourth wave: millions of people in the country have not received any dose of the corona virus at all.
As for Austria, it is important to point out that they do a lot of testing, and for free, can contribute to their high infection data. Anyone can access the tests on designated “test streets,” but also in workplaces and schools. In addition to relatively low vaccine protection, the country is trying to keep the number of new cases low.
In Romania, the radicals were full
However, the situation is more severe in countries where vaccination is still scarce. This map clearly shows how the number of new infections in our environment is developing.
Of them, Romania stands alone, where only 28 percent of the total population has received both doses of the vaccine. In 19 million countries, intensive care units were filled in almost every hospital, with the number of deaths on Friday exceeding 350, and the epidemic did not report many victims within 24 hours. On the same day, 13,854 new infections were diagnosed.
The Europe FM According to his information Romanian authorities have already begun talks with Hungary on how to transport people infected with the severe corona virus. Primarily, patients can be transferred from hospitals in border districts because oxygen-infected individuals cannot be transported by air, so an ambulance must be used. For now, however, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs are responsible for this question, writing only to the question of hvg.hu: Peter Sizzarde provided Hungary’s assistance in the care of patients with corona virus. Last weekend. Negotiations are currently underway between the Romanian and Hungarian sides over specific types of assistance.
Since then, as a first step, it has been revealed that Hungary will send a thousand boxes of Faviprevier to Romanian health officials earlier this week.
As the number of infections treated in Romanian hospitals crossed 15,000 on Friday, aid intensified and reached 1,561 for intensive care. Simrad Rose, spokesman for the Arad County Emergency Hospital, confirmed that severely injured people were waiting to come to the hospital bed, lined up in emergency departments of crowded hospitals and ambulances lined up in front of the building. .
According to a spokesman on Friday, 278 corona virus patients were being cared for at Arad Hospital, 27 of whom are in need of intensive care, but 8-10 new patients a day waiting in bed in the emergency department will be actively discharged. Of the 278 patients, 30 were vaccinated (in Romania, these numbers are also common), only one of them went to the intensive care unit, but the patients had severe underlying diseases in all cases, he said.
According to Simina Rose, their situation is not unique.
Every hospital in Romania is on the verge of its performance.